Tropical Storm Norbert Forms, but Storm Track and Strength Still Uncertain
The National Hurricane Center announced today the formation of Tropical Storm Norbert, currently over 200 miles southwest of Manzanillo. The storm track (see map above) indicates the storm will not reach hurricance status and will stay west of the Baja Peninsula and Los Cabos. However, the NHC has advised that the storm track and strength predictions may change as early as tomorrow.
The NHC forecasters acknowledged that the computer models used to determine the storm's track are in relative agreement over the next 24 hours, unlike the models released yesterday. After that the predictions are less certain. The storm track is based on a weather system in northwestern Mexico holding the storm to the west of the Baja, but this may change:
"It would not be surprising to see later forecasts be adjusted a bit to the north at longer range, given model trends."
If this occurs the storm may come closer to Cabo than indicated on the current map.
The NHC also notes that conditions are favorable for strengthening, yet the official models indicate that Norbert will remain a tropical storm and not a become a hurricane. That too may change:
"The environment near Norbert seems mostly favorable for strengthening during the next few days with the cyclone forecast over warm waters with moderate shear. Given this environment, it is a little surprising that none of the more reliable models makes Norbert a hurricane."
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