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Eighteen-E: Another Tropical Depression That May Strengthen

Date Published: 11/1/2013

The depression at this point is hard to read. It has not become better organized during the past several hours and there appears to be multiple swirls within the circulation envelope. The system has some chance to strengthen over the next couple of days while it remains over war water with light sear. Although the regional hurricane models suggest the depression will get significantly stronger during the next days, most of the other guidance show only a small increase in winds. Because the large size and the poor initial structure the idea that it will get weaker seems more reasonable. Weakening should commence after 48h due to an increase in shear, and the cyclone will probably not last long after landfall due to strong shear and interaction with mountains.

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